From Commitments to Results: Bridging the Climate Adaptation Evidence Gap. Findings on Results Measurement and Reporting from a Performance Audit of Norwegian Aid for Climate Adaptation
Norway pledged at COP26 in Glasgow to treble climate adaptation aid from NOK 1 billion in 2020 to NOK 3 billion annually by 2026. Would rapid scaling through bilateral and multilateral channels come at the cost of knowledge about results? In a performance audit by the National Audit Office of Norway, we examined whether the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Norad managed aid for climate change adaptation in line with parliamentary expectations and the overarching goal under the Paris agreement of strengthening developing countries' resilience to climate change.
28 October 2026 | 15:00 CEST to 15:30 CEST | Lille, France
Abstract
The audit included a field visit to Malawi, analysis of statistics and results reporting, stakeholder interviews, an expert reference group and independent external assessment of results. Systemic weaknesses were uncovered. First, half of the 20 sampled aid agreements were incorrectly categorised as climate adaptation, inflating reported volumes as well as contributing to inaccurate reporting of Norway's international climate finance under the Paris Agreement. Second, results information from key multilateral and bilateral partners was weak, leaving the ministry without an overview of achieved outcomes across the portfolio of adaptation aid. Third, reporting to Parliament was neither systematic nor balanced: the audit identified instances of overstated results and an absence of reported challenges.
These findings have implications beyond Norway. They illustrate and indicate a structural accountability gap. Existing methods for categorising aid and the reporting of results have weaknesses exposed here. When adaptation funding is increasing rapidly, evidence-based policymaking is in strong demand. The paper argues that supreme audit institutions offer a distinctive and important evaluative lens: mandated independence, portfolio-wide access, and authority to trace public funds from parliaments to outcomes in the field.
The presentation will discuss methodological approaches, key findings, and policy recommendations, and discuss what can be done to strengthen results measurement in climate adaptation aid.
Rationale and Objectives
Rationale: Climate adaptation finance is growing rapidly, yet evaluation evidence on what this funding achieves remains thin. OECD DAC Rio markers serve as a primary mechanism for tracking climate finance flows, but they have questionable reliability as demonstrated repeatedly. As donors scale up funding to fulfil climate commitments, a risk of a widening gap between reported spending and demonstrated results increases. This paper addresses that gap by presenting findings from an independent, institutionally mandated audit of one major donor's entire climate adaptation portfolio.
The paper is directly relevant to the S09 strand's focus on climate finance effectiveness, accountability mechanisms, and methodological challenges in evaluating adaptation. It speaks to the strand's emphasis on examining "the disconnect between climate finance commitments and development outcomes" (Session 2) and the "methodological challenges in evaluating adaptation, including attribution and measuring resilience" (Session 3).
Objectives: Present empirical evidence on the scale and nature of miscategorisation in climate adaptation aid reporting and implications for international climate finance tracking.
Examine the results measurement challenge: why self-reported outcomes from implementing organisations may diverge significantly from independently verified results.
Demonstrate how supreme audit institutions can complement traditional evaluation approaches by offering portfolio-wide, independently mandated scrutiny of donor performance.
Stimulate discussion among evaluation practitioners on practical approaches to strengthening adaptation results frameworks in an era of rapid funding increases.
Lille Grand Palais
Room 16
1 Bd des Cités Unies
59800 Lille, France